Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models
Identifieur interne : 008564 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 008563; suivant : 008565Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models
Auteurs : David A. Keith [Australie] ; H. Resit Akçakaya [États-Unis] ; Wilfried Thuiller [France] ; Guy F. Midgley [Afrique du Sud] ; Richard G. Pearson [États-Unis] ; Steven J. Phillips [États-Unis] ; Helen M. Regan [États-Unis] ; Miguel B. Araújo [Espagne] ; Tony G. Rebelo [Afrique du Sud]Source :
- Biology Letters [ 1744-9561 ] ; 2008.
Abstract
Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.
Url:
DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049
PubMed: 18664424
PubMed Central: 2610061
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 001373
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 001233
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 002939
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 000426
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 000426
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 000426
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 008D94
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 008564
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models</title><author><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A" last="Keith">David A. Keith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><institution>NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change</institution><addr-line>PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NSW 2220</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akcakaya, H Resit" sort="Akcakaya, H Resit" uniqKey="Akcakaya H" first="H. Resit" last="Akçakaya">H. Resit Akçakaya</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University</institution><addr-line>Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thuiller, Wilfried" sort="Thuiller, Wilfried" uniqKey="Thuiller W" first="Wilfried" last="Thuiller">Wilfried Thuiller</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><institution>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553</institution><addr-line>38041 Grenoble, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>38041 Grenoble</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Midgley, Guy F" sort="Midgley, Guy F" uniqKey="Midgley G" first="Guy F" last="Midgley">Guy F. Midgley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>7735 Cape Town</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pearson, Richard G" sort="Pearson, Richard G" uniqKey="Pearson R" first="Richard G" last="Pearson">Richard G. Pearson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><institution>American Museum of Natural History</institution><addr-line>New York, NY 10024, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>New York, NY 10024</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Phillips, Steven J" sort="Phillips, Steven J" uniqKey="Phillips S" first="Steven J" last="Phillips">Steven J. Phillips</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>AT&T Labs Research</institution><addr-line>Florham Park, NJ 07932, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Florham Park, NJ 07932</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">New Jersey</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Regan, Helen M" sort="Regan, Helen M" uniqKey="Regan H" first="Helen M" last="Regan">Helen M. Regan</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>University of California</institution><addr-line>Riverside, CA 92521, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Riverside, CA 92521</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Araujo, Miguel B" sort="Araujo, Miguel B" uniqKey="Araujo M" first="Miguel B" last="Araújo">Miguel B. Araújo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8"><institution>Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC</institution><addr-line>28006 Madrid, Spain</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>28006 Madrid</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rebelo, Tony G" sort="Rebelo, Tony G" uniqKey="Rebelo T" first="Tony G" last="Rebelo">Tony G. Rebelo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>7735 Cape Town</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">18664424</idno><idno type="pmc">2610061</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2610061</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2610061</idno><idno type="doi">10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049</idno><date when="2008">2008</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001373</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001373</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001233</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001233</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">002939</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">002939</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000426</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000426</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000426</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1744-9561:2008:Keith D:predicting:extinction:risks</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">008D94</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">008564</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">008564</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models</title><author><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A" last="Keith">David A. Keith</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><institution>NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change</institution><addr-line>PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>PO Box 1967, Hurstville, NSW 2220</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>NSW 2220</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akcakaya, H Resit" sort="Akcakaya, H Resit" uniqKey="Akcakaya H" first="H. Resit" last="Akçakaya">H. Resit Akçakaya</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><institution>Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University</institution><addr-line>Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thuiller, Wilfried" sort="Thuiller, Wilfried" uniqKey="Thuiller W" first="Wilfried" last="Thuiller">Wilfried Thuiller</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><institution>Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553</institution><addr-line>38041 Grenoble, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>38041 Grenoble</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Midgley, Guy F" sort="Midgley, Guy F" uniqKey="Midgley G" first="Guy F" last="Midgley">Guy F. Midgley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>7735 Cape Town</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pearson, Richard G" sort="Pearson, Richard G" uniqKey="Pearson R" first="Richard G" last="Pearson">Richard G. Pearson</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><institution>American Museum of Natural History</institution><addr-line>New York, NY 10024, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>New York, NY 10024</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Phillips, Steven J" sort="Phillips, Steven J" uniqKey="Phillips S" first="Steven J" last="Phillips">Steven J. Phillips</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff6"><institution>AT&T Labs Research</institution><addr-line>Florham Park, NJ 07932, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Florham Park, NJ 07932</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">New Jersey</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Regan, Helen M" sort="Regan, Helen M" uniqKey="Regan H" first="Helen M" last="Regan">Helen M. Regan</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><institution>University of California</institution><addr-line>Riverside, CA 92521, USA</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Riverside, CA 92521</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Araujo, Miguel B" sort="Araujo, Miguel B" uniqKey="Araujo M" first="Miguel B" last="Araújo">Miguel B. Araújo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8"><institution>Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC</institution><addr-line>28006 Madrid, Spain</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>28006 Madrid</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rebelo, Tony G" sort="Rebelo, Tony G" uniqKey="Rebelo T" first="Tony G" last="Rebelo">Tony G. Rebelo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><institution>South African National Biodiversity Institute</institution><addr-line>7735 Cape Town, Republic of South Africa</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>7735 Cape Town</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Biology Letters</title><idno type="ISSN">1744-9561</idno><idno type="eISSN">1744-957X</idno><imprint><date when="2008">2008</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.</p></div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Afrique du Sud</li><li>Australie</li><li>Espagne</li><li>France</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li><li>New Jersey</li><li>État de New York</li></region></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Keith, David A" sort="Keith, David A" uniqKey="Keith D" first="David A" last="Keith">David A. Keith</name></noRegion></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="État de New York"><name sortKey="Akcakaya, H Resit" sort="Akcakaya, H Resit" uniqKey="Akcakaya H" first="H. Resit" last="Akçakaya">H. Resit Akçakaya</name></region><name sortKey="Pearson, Richard G" sort="Pearson, Richard G" uniqKey="Pearson R" first="Richard G" last="Pearson">Richard G. Pearson</name><name sortKey="Phillips, Steven J" sort="Phillips, Steven J" uniqKey="Phillips S" first="Steven J" last="Phillips">Steven J. Phillips</name><name sortKey="Regan, Helen M" sort="Regan, Helen M" uniqKey="Regan H" first="Helen M" last="Regan">Helen M. Regan</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Thuiller, Wilfried" sort="Thuiller, Wilfried" uniqKey="Thuiller W" first="Wilfried" last="Thuiller">Wilfried Thuiller</name></noRegion></country><country name="Afrique du Sud"><noRegion><name sortKey="Midgley, Guy F" sort="Midgley, Guy F" uniqKey="Midgley G" first="Guy F" last="Midgley">Guy F. Midgley</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Rebelo, Tony G" sort="Rebelo, Tony G" uniqKey="Rebelo T" first="Tony G" last="Rebelo">Tony G. Rebelo</name></country><country name="Espagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Araujo, Miguel B" sort="Araujo, Miguel B" uniqKey="Araujo M" first="Miguel B" last="Araújo">Miguel B. Araújo</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Asie/explor/AustralieFrV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 008564 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 008564 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Asie
|area= AustralieFrV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:2610061
|texte= Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:18664424" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a AustralieFrV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |